Hello, this is the ISOL Trend Analysis Team.
Recently, the global MDI market has shown trends that are difficult to explain by simple price adjustments or seasonal factors.
Rather than a sudden surge in demand,it appears that a series of events on the supply side are shaking the overall balance of the market.It seems closer to this.
Especially around November to December 2025,
major production hubs in Asia and Europe are simultaneously entering a phase ofscheduled maintenance or reduced operating rates.This situation seems to necessitate a reinterpretation of the global MDI supply structure.
It seems that a reinterpretation of the global MDI supply structure has become necessary.
The ISOL Trend Analysis Team is focusing on this trend as a potential signal of a changing supply structure,
rather than a "temporary event overlap."
The most notable point in this phase is
The most notable point in this phase is
that major MDI production facilities have adjusted their operations almost simultaneously.Examples of major shutdowns in November to December 2025
Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo)
→ 1 million tons per year MDI facility, scheduled maintenance
Covestro (Shanghai)
→ 600,000 tons per year line, scheduled maintenance
BASF (Chongqing)
→ 530,000 tons per year facility, scheduled maintenance
Huntsman (Netherlands)
→ 280,000 tons per year facility, unplanned shutdown (at least over 1 month)
When these facilities are combined,
it is interpreted that approximately 30% of global MDI production capacity is temporarily out of the market.
An additional variable in Europe, BASF AntwerpAlong with the concentration of scheduled maintenance in Asia,
in Europe,
the reduced operating rate of BASF's Antwerp MDI facility
is acting as an additional variable.BASF is reportedly operating its 650,000 tons per year MDI facility in Antwerp at a lower operating rate due tochlorine supply shortages and equipment inspection issues.
This situation is said to be likely to continue until March 2026.
Since Antwerp is one of the key supply hubs in Europe,
that it is operating at a low utilization rate compared to normal operations.It is reported that,
this situationis likely to continue until March 2026.Antwerp is one of the key supply hubs in Europe,
so it seems likely to go through a period where supply tightness and volatility coexist.
The decrease in the operating rate of this facilityseems likely to lead to an additional supply burden of about 6% on a global scale.
Why does the market feel this impact more strongly?
The MDI market structurally
has a supply structure centered around a few global companies,
making it difficult to substitute quantities between regions,
and it is an industry with a high proportion of long-term contracts, limiting spot liquidity.
In such an environment,
if a 30% level of production capacity loss coincides with a decrease in operating rates from Europe,
it seems likely that the actual market will experiencesupply pressure stronger than the figures suggest..
The recent price increases and delivery adjustment issues,
seem to be interpreted as a result of these changes in supply structure being reflected late.
The market environment compounded by trade risks
Additionally,
the strengthened anti-dumping environment after the US-China trade disputealso
acts as a factor limiting the supply routes in the MDI market.
With the possibility of high tariffs on Chinese MDI being discussed,
especially in the US and Europe,
the market is gradually
prioritizing “supply stability and regulatory risks” over“price.”.
This suggests that MDI is beginning to be recognized as a material that needs to consider geopolitical risks,
rather than just a simple general-purpose chemical raw material.
Expansion is planned, but there is a time lag.
In the long term, there are definitely plans for supply expansion.
Kumho Mitsui Chemicals: MDI expansion of 100,000 tons/year (target completion in 2027)
Wanhua Chemical: Fujian base technical renovation of 700,000 tons/year (expected to be completed in Q2 2026)
However, this expansion volume is
more likely to affect market balance in the medium to long term rather than immediately resolving the current short-term supply gap.
In the meantime, the market is likely to go through a phase where
supply tightness and volatility coexist.
It seems likely that we will go through a period where supply tightness and volatility coexist.
This global MDI supply instability is
more than just a simple overlap of temporary events.
There are signs that the supply structure and transaction standards are changing.It seems there is room for interpretation.
The ISOL trend analysis team
will continuously observe the flow of these structural changes,
and will continue to share insights that can be practically referenced on-site.
Thank you.